When NOT to trade
When NOT to trade
03 Nov 2013, 22:09
Running a simple and somewhat stupid idea here: Please input: When NOT tot trade (on 15m chart) on LONG. So far i collected:
- when MacD 1hour is falling
- when MacD 4hour is falling
- when price is above 4H and 1H 200Ema but 15m is onder 200Ema
- when price is outside Pivot R3 or S3
If you find things up here that you find ridicoulous, pleas say so.
Replies
jeex
03 Nov 2013, 23:17
jehjeh
As i said: a somewhat stupid idea, based on indicators. I know the gospel of risk management. Just want some global dogma's based on indicators. This "test" is just for fun. And fun it will be for all robot builders here who seek for the holy grail.
So: global dogma's on when not to trade based on Indicators or measurable candle data: bring it on.
@jeex
jeex
04 Nov 2013, 12:24
Casino
You guys are way to serious about all this. The thought is:
Win Chance == Lose Chance, IF trend is flat AND stopLoss == takeProfit (forget the spread for a moment) AND trade is placed At Random (Long or Short)
If trend is down or up, the angle of the trend can be put in the random generator and WinChance == LoseChance still counts.
Thus we place Random Trades and the Balance Line should be flat on the long run.
Random random = new Random(DateTime.UtcNow.Millisecond);
int randomNumber = random.Next((int)((-100000) * Ema.Result[dezeBar - 2]), (int)(100000 * Ema.Result[dezeBar - 1]));
if (randomNumber >= 0)
{
// stupid trade LONG?
if (mac4.MACD.IsFalling() || mac1.MACD.IsFalling() || mac.MACD.IsRising() || Ema.Result.IsFalling())
return;
GoLong(volume, SL, TP);
}
else
{
// stupid trade SHORT?
if (mac4.MACD.IsRising() || mac1.MACD.IsRising() || mac.MACD.IsRising() || ema.Result.IsRising())
return;
GoShort(volume, SL, TP);
}
But: if you ignore the Random Trades that really are stupid according to the Indicators Dogma's I asked for, then Balance Line should go up. In fact this is a way of testing these dogma's.
Pure fun, but also educational and a good tester for these sort of Indicater based trading rules.
@jeex
... Deleted by UFO ...
kricka
03 Nov 2013, 22:44
My take on "when not to trade" is as follows.
When basic risk & money management principles is not in place to protect the trading account. We can use multiple strategies and robots when to enter and exit positions. Though without proper money management to protect you, all strategies will fail at one time or another. I do not find the above strategy of yours at all ridiculous, it could be a winning one as long as you have a basic protection when you trade it.
@kricka